Standard Chartered has forecast stronger momentum in UAE business activity during the third quarter of 2026. The bank’s latest economic analysis indicates that economic attention is shifting toward the speed and scale of recovery across the GCC as regional tensions ease.

NON-OIL EXPANSION AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE

According to the report, the UAE’s June S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained above the 50 threshold. This signals continued expansion in non-oil private sector activity, maintaining stability through the kinetic phase of recent regional conflict. The analysis attributes this positive non-oil growth primarily to domestic consumption and investment, while noting that the external sector is expected to recover gradually as regional trade flows normalize.

Rola Abu Manneh, Chief Executive Officer for the UAE, Middle East, and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, noted that the PMI results highlight the durability of the UAE’s private sector. “The UAE’s latest PMI reading reinforces the resilience of its non-oil economy and private sector activity through a period of regional uncertainty,” she said.

She added that steady local demand, paired with improving international trade, offers a highly favorable outlook for the upcoming quarter. “Domestic consumption and investment continue to support growth, while the gradual recovery in external demand provides a more constructive outlook for the third quarter. These trends reflect the depth of the UAE’s economic fundamentals and its continued role as a leading hub for trade, investment and capital flows,” Abu Manneh stated.

KEY DRIVERS OF THIRD-QUARTER GROWTH

Standard Chartered identified three primary drivers expected to support economic momentum in the third quarter: softer oil prices, a recovering job market, and an acceleration in investment growth. This investment trajectory is supported by regional governments continuing to focus on the diversification of trade corridors.

STABILIZATION OF ENERGY LOGISTICS

Additionally, the analysis observed that energy logistics are stabilizing. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the prior rerouting of oil exports, has facilitated a near-full recovery in the UAE’s oil export volumes. Regional oil exports, meanwhile, are recovering at a more gradual pace.

Source: Standard Chartered Global Research